Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-18 13.587889 15.535176 17.630816 20.049883 22.761246 25.702365 29.130016
2025-05-25 10.703278 13.343581 16.403905 20.197249 24.755775 30.039368 36.607734
2025-06-01 9.155072 12.069610 15.612215 20.205416 25.970075 32.929496 41.927322
2025-06-08 7.870797 10.918232 14.785101 20.004883 26.813038 35.331640 46.728022
2025-06-15 7.031974 10.193359 14.355835 20.170910 28.006145 38.108126 52.012127
2025-06-22 6.489586 9.787306 14.275460 20.739874 29.703519 41.567835 58.306307
2025-06-29 5.783593 9.065929 13.678931 20.521396 30.273143 43.506656 62.618170
2025-07-06 4.964861 8.090833 12.627645 19.556727 29.703133 43.813510 64.661451
2025-07-13 4.657742 7.845100 12.598564 20.039145 31.183948 47.001192 70.815704
2025-07-20 4.358252 7.578015 12.506853 20.405048 32.492186 49.979523 76.779419
2025-07-27 3.992527 7.167896 12.157614 20.342399 33.137606 52.003293 81.423215
2025-08-03 3.633101 6.732330 11.729489 20.116208 33.501786 53.603653 85.482628
2025-08-10 3.352661 6.410760 11.468684 20.150386 34.290440 55.908062 90.753756
2025-08-17 3.134633 6.177245 11.333513 20.375333 35.387129 58.727068 96.928645
2025-08-24 2.896299 5.882706 11.068254 20.356755 36.073458 60.917798 102.196396
2025-08-31 2.652958 5.554836 10.717868 20.164124 36.451506 62.623141 106.754176
2025-09-07 2.488924 5.359832 10.583547 20.328089 37.420544 65.297242 112.935856
2025-09-14 2.398280 5.297903 10.681840 20.902163 39.106911 69.194468 121.226601
2025-09-21 2.205414 5.014490 10.350924 20.681758 39.402634 70.804524 125.832492
2025-09-28 1.935326 4.546593 9.636846 19.710473 38.319448 70.051891 126.480575
2025-10-05 1.865337 4.490142 9.705616 20.196227 39.851248 73.774170 134.747631
2025-10-12 1.786212 4.406470 9.713944 20.564705 41.182923 77.197467 142.621440
2025-10-19 1.666182 4.221444 9.506140 20.501613 41.713517 79.244016 148.199709